Monday, November 3, 2008

Worst Case Scenario


I feel very vulnerable in posting this. However, I'm going out on a limb here and sharing my "worst-case-scenario" on the election.

First..... I suspect that Obama has easily enough supporters to win the election.

I can unfortunately imagine that regardless of who is touted by the media as the winner........

1) There will be enormous voting problems i.e. long lines, staff shortages, shortages of voting machines, voting machine failures, inadequate back up systems, shortages of back-up machines, shortages of back-up provisional and paper ballots, inaccurate voter registration records, lists, and conflicts, vote flipping on computerized machines, voter dissuasion via misinformation and intimidation, possible polling place violence, a hodgepodge of poorly coordinated extensions of voting hours, inaccurate and mismanaged reporting of precinct and state results etc.

2) Tuesday evening or Wednesday ...... There will be a declaration of a winner and the complaints of voter fraud and the challenging of the results will render the declaration invalid.
Or, regardless of who appears to win, so many voters and precincts will lodge complaints and contest the counts, fairness and equality of access, that there will be no declaration at all, of a clear winner.

3) This situation will continue for days, weeks or longer, denying us a new president.

4) During this period of extreme election chaos and complete media preoccupation, the current administration will create or activate a "shock" situation i.e. war or hyper-accelerated conflict with Syria, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan or even within Iraq. There are of course other places and other types of "shock" events that might occur, even on our own soil.

5) In the midst of the "shock", the transition to a new presidency will be suspended, martial law will be declared, the active combat units (currently stationed on American soil) who's mission has been described as "to help with civil unrest" will be deployed on the streets of America.

The rest ......... well......... there it is. That is my most disturbing view of how bad it could get.

As so often, I pray I'm wrong. If I am wrong, and here's the good part......... Not only will hope prevail, but in addition, I will buy a beer for anyone who has read this, posted a comment, and can say..."Aha! You're a pessimistic alarmist. I told you it couldn't happen here!"

I'm very, very much looking forward to those "YOU OWE ME A BEER" phone calls. I feel reassured enough by my own secret hope that I'm gonna say "PLEASE DON'T FORWARD THIS TO ALL YOUR FRIENDS!" That's more beer than I can afford.

So here's the qualifier: Only people who have read and left a comment on this post before noon on Tuesday, November 4, 2008 will be eligible for the free beer. So, there's my implicit, passive, preemptive recanting of my "Worst Case Scenario",
an expression of my refusal to believe that it could happen here and my idealistic commitment to hope. Let's all keep our fingers crossed.

Peace............

3 comments:

Unknown said...

let's hope that your worst case scenario does not manifest as such. I agree with the hypothesis that lines will be long, voting problems will occur, protests will ensue. However, I'm undecided as to whether this will prevent the declaration of a winner in the 2008 Presidential race. I'd be surprised (given the anticipated turnout and the number of absentee and/or paper ballots) if the vote counting is completed before Wednesday or Thursday. As for the "shock" situation of an accelerated conflict, while possible, I hope that this proves untrue. If you're proven right, it will be a sad transition indeed. If you're not, I'm not a big beer fan..so you're exposure on beer credits is n-1.

Jacques Conejo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
noradawn said...

If things go well I'll be there for that beer.

--Jon

If in every crisis there is opportunity, let's hope we find ours.